June 20th 2011 Chase Log

Ok, so here we are...June 20th and heres the mornings 11am outlook from the SPC including images displayed as Outlook, Tornado, and Wind/Hail...looks intense near the ks/ok border, doesn't it?  Check out the 'Candy Cane' shape for the MDT risk area...Christmas in June anyone???

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1103 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2011
  
   VALID 201630Z - 211200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEB...WESTERN IA...SOUTHEAST SD...EAST KS...
   NORTHWEST MO SWD THROUGH CENTRAL OK......
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE OH VALLEY...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE
   CAROLINAS...
  
   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
   UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING FROM CURRENT POSITION SE CO
   NEWD ACROSS WRN KS INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z TUE. 60-70KT 500MB JET MAX
   WITH ASSOCIATED STRONG ASCENT/DIVERGENCE SPREADING NEWD FROM CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS ACROSS KS INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW OVER
   W-CENTRAL KS WILL MOVE SLOWLY NNEWD INTO SRN NEB. THE DRY LINE
   EXTENDING FROM THE LOW SWD THRU FAR WRN OK/SWRN TX WILL SHIFT EWD BY
   MID AFTERNOON TO EXTEND ON A N/S AXIS VICINITY THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
  
   VERY STRONG SLY WINDS AHEAD OF DRY LINE WILL WRAP NWWD THE MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO N OF SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL NEB.
    
   THE STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH THE POST FRONTAL MOIST
   NLY FLOW WRN KS THIS AM HAS GENERATED ELEVATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
   
   BY MID AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
   OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH ALONG THE DRY LINE AND IN THE
   VERY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT REGION TO THE N/NE OF
   THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEB.
  
   THE STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER ERN NEB
   COUPLED WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/KG EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   TORNADIC SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  THERE IS THE
   POTENTIAL OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE IN
   PLACE.
  
   DOWN THE DRY LINE SCATTERED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP AS THE CAP
   BREAKS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME MLCAPES WILL HAVE CLIMBED
   TO AOA 2500 J/KG SWD TO THE OK/TX BORDER WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
   PRESENCE OF THE MID LEVEL JET MAX AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
   RESULT IN A VERY LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL ALONG WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST
   WINDS.  IT NOW APPEARS COVERAGE OF BOTH THE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT TO UPGRADE THE RISK TO MDT AS FAR S AS THE OKC AREA .    THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES GIVEN THE 50-60 KT OF
   SHEAR.  FURTHER S INTO NCENTRAL TX THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WILL BE
   LESS BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   DOWNBURSTS.

Ok, so the setup looks promising and I even left work early just to be able to make it near the OK/KS border in time around 4pm.  I began streaming live for Channel 8 at 5pm waiting for the storms to fire along the line forming near the Nebraska/Kansas border.  Hey, it was possible.  I watched the radar as the line began to backbuild to the south into central Kansa for the next hour waiting.  To my west about 60 miles away, I could see the cells struggling to fire.  What I remember the most is how damn hot it was.  It was close to 97 degrees.  Heres a pic of what I saw at the time.

So, seeing that the movement to the east had slowed, it was time to go after the cells heading west on 60 towards Ponca City.

Now I'm about 15 miles to the west, but still short of making it to Ponca City.  I'm beginning to loose light and I decide to pull off to the side of the road and wait for the cells that have begun to advance in my direction....finally.

Met up with Justin Mace and his wife Dixie.  Very nice people who also love to chase!!!



So the summary is, no Tornadoes seen for the day, but I captures some spectacular images, met some wonderful friends and photos that are definately keepers. Below is the summary for the day by the SPC

June 18th 2011 Chase Log

This was one of the more interesting days of chasing this season.  It was a typical day at work with no real storms to look forward to, so I didn't pay much attention to the weather except for the possibility of storms if the cap could break earlier that evening.  This is the earlier morning report from the SPC.  No where does it even hint to a possible chance for tornadoes...period! Only the chance for wind and hail as the below images indicate. 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2011
  
   VALID 181630Z - 191200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S...DOWNSTREAM
   THE RIDGE HAS FLATTENED WITH A BAND OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW
   EXTENDING EWD THRU THE SCENTRAL STATES.  THE PRIMARY SURFACE
   BOUNDARIES OF INTEREST WITH RESPECT TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
   EXTEND FROM THE COLD POOL GENERATED BOUNDARIES NOW CROSSING TN
   VALLEY WWD ALONG MO/AR BORDER TO A LOW OVER NCENTRAL OK. ALSO A
   FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE MCV THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT CURRENTLY
   MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL.

...ERN KS/MO...

   THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT EXTEND WWD ALONG MO/AR BORDER  WILL BE
   LIKELY FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS AND MLCAPES CLIMB AS HIGH AS 4000 J/KG.
   WHILE THE CINH WILL BE AN ISSUE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN
   STORMS ARE ABLE TO INITIATE ALONG BOUNDARY THEY SHOULD QUICKLY
   BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE POTENT THERMODYNAMICS.
  
   WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASING THIS EVENING TO 40KT SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP UPSCALE LEADING TO ONE OR MORE MCS/S
   AGAIN TONIGHT FROM ERN KS ACROSS MO. IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL
   IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF INITIATION...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE ON THE
   INCREASE...PRIMARILY AFTER 00Z WHEN THE SHEAR IMPROVES AND COLD POOL
   DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE COULD OCCUR
   THIS EVENING PARTS OF ERN KS AND MO.

Figuring there might be a chance to shoot some much needed lightning shots later that evening if the cells could fire, I left work at 5 and went home to jump into the pool to cool off.  By 5:46, I glanced up to the sky seeing what I knew to be the blow off anvil of some storm to the northwest.  I glanced at my mobile radar on the phone and noticed a single mature supercell along the kansas/oklahoma border near I-35. 

I went in to get dinner with the family when my friend Kyle Thorson called me on the phone from Osage State Park 15 miles to our nothwest.  He inquired if the storm was something to worry about.  At that time, the weather radio went off indicating a TORNADO WARNING for Osage County.  I told him the message and to get campers to a safe shelter ASAP.

Finishing off dinner, I barely had timme to gather my live stream equiptment and head out the door.  My son Chance came along and we proceeded north on 75 towards Copan, Oklahoma which was 15 miles to our north.  I kept an eye to the west seeing the monster of a cell fill the sky.  Passing through Dewey, OK, I caught sight of the tornado to my west.  It was on the ground for a couple of minutes and began to dissolve before I could get my camera into position.  Luckly, Kyle caught the tornado on video and film seen below.

From my vantage point to the west, this is what I saw. (below)

Although the last four shots taken look to be tornadic, they were scud and low lying base clouds not attached to the wall cloud. 

All in all, it was a terrific chase in my own backyard.  The lightning that night was incredible to watch!

June 14th, 2011 Chase Log

As the Day started off, this is what the SPC put out during the morning hours.  Unfortunately, I had to work during the day and got off to a late start until early evening where I did capture some nice lightning shots.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

 
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK
   TO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
  
   ...NRN/CENTRAL MO AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   OUTFLOW WITH MORNING CONVECTION HAS CONFINED THE EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONT TO AN AXIS FROM SRN MO TO NE KS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT
   NWD/NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING STORMS
   WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY.  MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN KS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
   EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE LOW. 

   HERE...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 2500-3500 J/KG BY

   LATE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KT AND
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL DURING THE
   EVENING.  THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED...IN THE FIRST
   FEW HOURS AFTER STORM INITIATION WHEN STORMS WILL BE MORE DISCRETE.
   BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STORM MERGERS COULD RESULT IN
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS EWD/SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
  
   ...I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
   EVENING.  THE SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE
   BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN
   THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AUGMENTED BY
   MIDLEVEL ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  A DEEP MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND
   PRODUCTION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN A BROKEN BAND ON THE FRONT
   THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE REGION
   OF STRONGER INSTABILITY TOWARD NE OK/SE KS.

SPC Outlook Graph- Severe storms



SPC Tornado Risk was even lesser than I expectede by the afternoon hours.

Here are the pics I captured later that night.

June 10th 2011 Chase Log

Friday June 11, 2011 Chase Log

The outlook for the morning started off like this:

...SRN PLAINS...

  

   FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS OF OK/NWRN TX STRONG HEATING WILL

   ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO SOAR TO NEAR 100F IN ADVANCE OF
   WIND SHIFT.  SUCH STRONG HEATING WILL INDUCE DEEP THERMALS AS LAPSE
   RATES STEEPEN AND INHIBITION SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 22-23Z ALLOWING
   FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH BASES EXPECTED TO BE
   NEAR 700MB AND SFC TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS POSSIBLY APPROACHING
   40-50F...STRONG DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

Although the outlook was less than exciting, it was still worth heading out later in the afternoon to search for the storms that did fire.  Unfortunately, they were late bloomers and what we did get in the area made for some nice sunset images.  This final SPC tally is listed: