Friday, March 25, 2011
Tuesday, March 22, 2011
March 22, 2011 Storm recap: CHASE Episode 2
Its started off like this:
followed by this:
Having to work today until 1pm, I had a late start to getting to the storms in time. Taking the long roads through central Kansas, it took me 3 hours to get to Emporia, KS. By this time, the first cells were beginning to fire in north central Kansas. These storms were moving at about 50 m.p.h. which made it tricky to get into position in time to see the initiation. Surprisingly, SPC put Tornado watch #53 up just as I was north of Independance, KS.
By the time I reach Emporia, I soon realized that I wasn't going to be able to make the storms in time. They were racing northeast and I was still 3 hours out by 4pm. With very little time left and only half way there, i decided to give up on these fast movers. Seemed alot like the cells I chased on May 10th, 2010. My position:
By the time I decided to turn around, the storms were exploding across the border into Iowa. It was too far for me to get to in time. This was the SPC discussion at the time:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND WRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...
VALID 222233Z - 222330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
SWRN-SCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER NEAR OMAHA. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NEB INTO ERN KS...WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO NCNTRL IL. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FARTHER W FROM SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND SWRN
KS...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE.
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS QUITE NARROW WITH ZONE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM ERN KS...WRN MO AND SWRN IA. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPER
ASCENT WITHIN EJECTING UPPER JET EXIT REGION. GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SWRN-SCNTRL IA NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED. STORMS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOL
SECTOR...BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
STORMS COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH ERN KS
AND WRN MO WHERE DEEPER FORCING IS MORE LIMITED AND CAP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STRONGER.
Pulling down the radar, I realized by 4:30, that the watch box had been removed for much of Kansas. I was glad to see that I gave up when I did. I'd rather save my money for another day with a better setup.
WHAT I LEARNED:
Its best to be in position either by the day of the storms, or at least the night before. I didn't consider the distance between me and the triple point and along the dryline. Another episode to chuck up and learn from until next time.
followed by this:
Having to work today until 1pm, I had a late start to getting to the storms in time. Taking the long roads through central Kansas, it took me 3 hours to get to Emporia, KS. By this time, the first cells were beginning to fire in north central Kansas. These storms were moving at about 50 m.p.h. which made it tricky to get into position in time to see the initiation. Surprisingly, SPC put Tornado watch #53 up just as I was north of Independance, KS.
By the time I reach Emporia, I soon realized that I wasn't going to be able to make the storms in time. They were racing northeast and I was still 3 hours out by 4pm. With very little time left and only half way there, i decided to give up on these fast movers. Seemed alot like the cells I chased on May 10th, 2010. My position:
By the time I decided to turn around, the storms were exploding across the border into Iowa. It was too far for me to get to in time. This was the SPC discussion at the time:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0250
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...ERN KS AND WRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 53...
VALID 222233Z - 222330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 53 CONTINUES.
GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
SWRN-SCNTRL IA EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP FARTHER SW ACROSS ERN KS INTO NWRN MO POSING A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
DEEP SURFACE LOW WAS SITUATED OVER THE NEB/IA BORDER NEAR OMAHA. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SERN NEB INTO ERN KS...WITH
A WARM FRONT STRETCHING EWD THROUGH SRN IA INTO NCNTRL IL. A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FARTHER W FROM SERN NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND SWRN
KS...AND THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE.
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS QUITE NARROW WITH ZONE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
MLCAPE FROM ERN KS...WRN MO AND SWRN IA. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ARE
OCCURRING EAST OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SWRN IA IN RESPONSE TO DEEPER
ASCENT WITHIN EJECTING UPPER JET EXIT REGION. GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS SWRN-SCNTRL IA NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AS STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE LIFT NEWD AND INTERACT WITH
WARM FRONT WHERE 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY IS MAXIMIZED. STORMS
WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE DEEPER INTO THE COOL
SECTOR...BUT COULD STILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.
STORMS COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT THROUGH ERN KS
AND WRN MO WHERE DEEPER FORCING IS MORE LIMITED AND CAP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN STRONGER.
Pulling down the radar, I realized by 4:30, that the watch box had been removed for much of Kansas. I was glad to see that I gave up when I did. I'd rather save my money for another day with a better setup.
WHAT I LEARNED:
Its best to be in position either by the day of the storms, or at least the night before. I didn't consider the distance between me and the triple point and along the dryline. Another episode to chuck up and learn from until next time.
Saturday, March 19, 2011
Monday, March 14, 2011
Sunday, March 13, 2011
Spring is in the air, but is Severe?
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING LARGE SCALE
FEATURES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL
BE THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE SEVERAL BOUTS OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR RETURN MOISTURE
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THAT RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MOVING INLAND UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A WRN U.S. TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE BY LATE WEEK AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING LARGE SCALE
FEATURES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL
BE THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE SEVERAL BOUTS OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR RETURN MOISTURE
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THAT RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MOVING INLAND UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A WRN U.S. TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE BY LATE WEEK AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Friday, March 4, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
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