June 14th, 2011 Chase Log

As the Day started off, this is what the SPC put out during the morning hours.  Unfortunately, I had to work during the day and got off to a late start until early evening where I did capture some nice lightning shots.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT TUE JUN 14 2011

 
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT FROM CENTRAL OK
   TO THE MID MS AND TN VALLEY REGIONS...
  
   ...NRN/CENTRAL MO AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
   OUTFLOW WITH MORNING CONVECTION HAS CONFINED THE EFFECTIVE WARM
   FRONT TO AN AXIS FROM SRN MO TO NE KS.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD RETREAT
   NWD/NEWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN MO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE MORNING STORMS
   WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY.  MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
   PROGRESS EWD ACROSS ERN KS IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
   EWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   THE MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SURFACE LOW. 

   HERE...MLCAPE SHOULD INCREASE TO 2500-3500 J/KG BY

   LATE AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KT AND
   STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL DURING THE
   EVENING.  THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED NEAR THE
   WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED...IN THE FIRST
   FEW HOURS AFTER STORM INITIATION WHEN STORMS WILL BE MORE DISCRETE.
   BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...STORM MERGERS COULD RESULT IN
   UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS EWD/SEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
  
   ...I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL APPROACH THE I-44 CORRIDOR LATE THIS
   EVENING.  THE SURFACE HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE STRONG CAP IN PLACE
   BASED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN
   THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING...AUGMENTED BY
   MIDLEVEL ASCENT WITH THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL TROUGH.  A DEEP MIXED
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WIND
   PRODUCTION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN A BROKEN BAND ON THE FRONT
   THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL IN THE REGION
   OF STRONGER INSTABILITY TOWARD NE OK/SE KS.

SPC Outlook Graph- Severe storms



SPC Tornado Risk was even lesser than I expectede by the afternoon hours.

Here are the pics I captured later that night.