DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 AM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING LARGE SCALE
FEATURES INTO THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. OF PARTICULAR NOTE WILL
BE THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE SWRN U.S.
INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE SEVERAL BOUTS OF LEE
CYCLOGENESIS AND MORE FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES FOR RETURN MOISTURE
INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS. GIVEN THAT RICHER MOISTURE LIKELY WILL
HOLD OFF MOVING INLAND UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL
NOT INTRODUCE A RISK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME. ALTHOUGH...IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A WRN U.S. TROUGH
WILL EVOLVE BY LATE WEEK AN INCREASING RISK FOR STRONG/SVR TSTMS MAY
DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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