Insane Convection: January 2013

So lets back this up to a few days prior to 1/29/2013 event. Here's what the Storm Prediction Center had to say about the setup.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 AM CST SUN JAN 27 2013 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX NORTHEAST TO IL AND EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A POTENT HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MS VALLEY FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SWATH OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM CNTRL AND NERN TX...NRN LA...ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND SERN MO...AND EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS THE MS RIVER FROM IL TO MS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE OVERLY DETAILED REGARDING THE CHARACTER OF THIS EVENT...THE SIZE...STRENGTH...AND RAPID EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH SYSTEM...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE AND FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS SOME OR ALL OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS FROM AROUND MID-DAY TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ...TX TO IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY... PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND NOT SO PHASED DEPICTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS SHOWN BY LATEST ECMWF AND NAM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THESE SCENARIOS INDICATE A MOIST BUT GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE SITUATED FROM TX NEWD ACROSS MO AND INTO IL BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE COMPENSATED FOR BY RELATIVELY RAPID ONSET OF INTENSE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF MID/UPPER TROUGH AND 100KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX SPREADING OUT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR TO NEAR ARLATEX BY AROUND 00Z. DEEP CONVECTION WILL ERUPT ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE SHARPENING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EVER INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR/FLOW. EXTENSIVE QLCS APPEARS LIKELY TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CELL MOTIONS FORECAST IN EXCESS OF 50KT LEADING DAMAGING WINDS. LACK OF STRONGER CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS LINEAR MODE SHOULD DOMINATE BUT SUPERCELLS AND LEWPS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE AND NEAR TRANSIENT FRONTAL WAVE STRUCTURES WOULD POSE SOME TORNADO THREAT WITH TIME. UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDE HIGHER OR SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITIES AT THIS FORECAST RANGE. HOWEVER...FUTURE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK SEEMS POSSIBLE IF THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.

Tuesday 1/29/2013

So here's the updated report the morning of the event taken at the time listed. SPC has upgraded Dixie Alley to a Moderate Risk.

And of course, the tornado threat which is pretty good.

And a brief outline of today's events taken at 7:25 a.m.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   725 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
          EASTERN KANSAS
          WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
          NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
   300 PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
   TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE
   OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI. 
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING INVOLVING
   A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA.  CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT THE LINE SEGMENT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
   FRONTAL CONVECTION...RESULTING IN A LARGER-SCALE QLCS WHICH WILL
   MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.  12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
   MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE
   SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

I had to work today which sucked, but it did give me the opportunity to get early

to the sound of the weather radio alerting the

possible activation of a Tornado Watch for our area.

I was up at 5am and out to try and capture the

progress of the linear setup that was crossing into

green country.  These cells were moving north at 45 mph

and eastward at 6 mph.  From my vantage point, they were

still 50 or so miles away.  This was disappointing and

not to mention but the shots I did get were terrible.

Heres a screen capture of my position to the cells.

Well, the cells finally did arrive, but it was 2 hours later than I expected.  Mind you,

this was suppose to begin at midnight, but the setup took longer to generate until

this morning. In the next two pics, you can see gust front moving in.  The wind was

averaging about 20 mph and the peak gust I estimated was 40.  We got some pea sized

hail out of this, but nothing to the effect of being really severe.  Later notes

reveal that Copan, Oklahoma which is 15 miles to my north experienced wind gust of

70 mph.  This could have been the reason the NWS office in Tulsa sent Washington

County into the severe warning.

So, this is what the radar was showing at the time of the pics above.

So, all in all, it was a pretty good way to start of the 2013 season. As of this report, the activity is beginning to explode over Dixie Alley and I hope many from Mississippi up to Illinois stay close to their weather radios tonight.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0080
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0731 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NRN/CNTRL MS...WRN TN
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 10...
   
   VALID 300131Z - 300330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 10 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO THREATS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEMI-DISCRETE TSTM BANDS. COORDINATION WITH WFO
   MEM/JAN WILL OCCUR SHORTLY OVER ADDITIONAL AREAL EXTENSION OF WW 10
   OR NEW DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE.
   
   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH A BAND OF
   SEMI-DISCRETE TSTMS NOW JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   PERSISTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF MORE ROBUST BUOYANCY AS SAMPLED
   BY 00Z LZK/SHV/LCH RAOBS. DOWNSTREAM 00Z JAN AND A SPECIAL MS STATE
   SOUNDING FROM CLARKSDALE MS SAMPLED MORE MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH A
   DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH
   THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AMPLITUDE AND ERN EXTENT OF THE THREAT IN THE
   NEAR-TERM...RISING SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE PAST
   HOUR AT KTVR/KHEZ ALONG THE MS/LA BORDER. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE
   HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND STRENGTHENING LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT...A E/NEWD EXPANSION OF DAMAGING WIND/TORNADO POTENTIAL IN
   CONCERT WITH INCREASING DESTABILIZATION SHOULD CONTINUE.