April 14th, 2012 Chase Log Epic Score

Well lets see, where to begin on this wicked day.  How about this.  A frame by frame evolution 7 days out from the Target day.  Impressive to see SPC watching this very closely.

Heres the offical SPC heads up the night before indicating this would evolve into a PDS, or particularly dangerous situation. Heres the release around 2:42pm.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0242 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012
  
   VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR CNTRL AND ERN KS AND
   NEB...AND MUCH OF NRN OK...
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL OK NWD ACROSS
   KS...NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM N TX INTO SERN SD AND SRN
   MN...
  
   ...OK/KS...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THICK STRATUS RELATED TO THE
   ADVECTION OF MID 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS FROM NRN TX INTO
   CNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS...WITH SSELY SURFACE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30
   MPH. A SPECIAL 17Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A WARM LAYER
   NEAR 650 MB...WITH RELATIVELY COOL...BUT MOIST...PROFILES IN THE
   LOWEST 3 KM. LATEST RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATES CAPPING
   INCREASING AFTER 21Z OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AND ERN OK. THUS...THE
   THREAT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL THERE...BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE EDGE
   OF THE ONGOING HIGH RISK AREA. THUS...NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE.
  
   TO THE W...CLEARING WAS TAKING PLACE ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE FROM
   SW KS INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES AND WRN OK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
   SHOWED TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER WRN
   OK...AND AT OR ABOVE 80 F IN THE PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...THE
   ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME UNCAPPED IN THESE AREAS. INDEED...SEVERE
   STORMS WERE ALREADY ONGOING OVER WRN KS INTO FAR NW OK ALONG THE
   DRYLINE...WITH TOWERING CU FARTHER S.
  
   WAVES OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM ON THE DRYLINE...WHERE
   CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING AS SURFACE WINDS VEER OVER THE PANHANDLES.
   THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE SEVERE...AS LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TEMPERATURES WILL BE
   NEEDED TO INITIATE STORMS.
  
   MEANWHILE...LATEST RUC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT COOLING ALOFT
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MAY BE MORE ADVANCED THAT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
   WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -13 C TO THE DRYLINE BY 00Z. THIS WILL
   ONLY HELP TO INCREASE UPDRAFT ACCELERATION IN AN ALREADY VOLATILE
   SETUP. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR FOR
   VIOLENT TORNADOES WILL BE FROM NW OK ACROSS NRN OK INTO CNTRL AND
   S-CNTRL KS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO OCCUR. WITH ONGOING CELLS OVER
   CNTRL KS...THE LOCATION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY
   ROLE IN TORNADOGENESIS AS SUPERCELLS INTERACT WITH THEM LATER. SOME
   OF THE CITIES WITH THE HIGHEST RISK INCLUDE ENID...PRATT...GREAT
   BEND...SALINA...HUTCHINSON...WICHITA.
  
   ...NRN KS/NEB...
   LARGE SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN KS...WITH STRONG
   MESOCYCLONES NOTED ON RADAR AND PROBABLY TORNADOES. THESE CELLS WILL
   CONTINUE TO TREK NEWD INTO NEB WHERE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND
   INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. IN
   ADDITION TO A TORNADO THREAT...SOME OF THESE HP CELLS MAY EVENTUALLY
   BOW WITH DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS WELL.
  
   ANOTHER LIKELY AREA OF SUPERCELL TORNADO DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM
   NWRN KS INTO WRN AND CNTRL NEB. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CU
   FIELD...W OF THE ONGOING KS ACTIVITY...AND E OF THE DRYLINE. BACKED
   SURFACE FLOW OVER NEB...ALONG WITH CONTINUED HEATING AND COOLING
   ALOFT SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPING TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
   THREAT. STRONG TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE.
  
    
   ...A SIGNIFICANT TORNADO OUTBREAK IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
   TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA...KANSAS...AND OKLAHOMA...
  
   A LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PLACED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
   TODAY...WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
   MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
   EMBEDDED IN THE FASTER FLOW.  THIS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
   MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
  
   THE FIRST CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS HAS NOW FORMED OVER SOUTHWEST KS
   AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEB THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN AN INCREASINGLY VOLATILE AIR MASS
   AS DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE
   REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE EARLY THREATS...BUT
   AN INCREASING RISK OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
   TORNADOES BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES INTO SOUTHERN
   NEB...EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE ENHANCED.
  
   STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER WESTERN KS INTO WESTERN OK.  MODEL
   SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE CAP WILL BE WEAK BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING THIS EVENING.
   AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS COULD BE WIDELY SPACED.  HOWEVER...
   PARAMETERS TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL BE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
   FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LONG-TRACK... DAMAGING/VIOLENT
   TORNADOES /4000 J/KG MLCAPE...50-60 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...AND
   0-3KM SRH VALUES OF 300-500 M2/S2/.  THOSE STORMS THAT FORM MAY
   PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK AND INTO
   SOUTHERN NEB.
  
   FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY
   UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE COUPLED
   WITH A WEAK CAP AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME THREAT
   OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN NORTH TX.

Wicked setup for the day and I imagined every chaser across the US were heading for encounter!  So, heres the SPC's maps for the day.  It looks like todays gonna be a great day!

So, here we go...

April 13, 2012 Chase Log

Ok, well heres the set-up for todays chase.  Second one of the week, bigger one coming on Saturday.   Looked good early that morning, but by mid-day I was beginning to have my doubts if this was worth chasing.  So, heres the SPC outlook at 1:30pm CST once the tornado watch went up.  I was enroute towards I-35 west of Stillwater, OK as my target leaving Bartlesville around noon.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   130 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2012
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          OKLAHOMA
          A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TEXAS
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL 900
   PM CDT.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF WICHITA FALLS
   TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
 
   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN OK AS THE CAP
   HAS WEAKENED WITHIN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
   2000-2500 J/KG.  ALTHOUGH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
   SUBTLE...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP TOWARD NRN OK THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
   ALSO INCREASING ALONG THE NWRN EDGE OF MOISTURE AS IT RETREATS NWWD
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT IN THE
   LOWEST 6 KM WILL FAVOR FORMATION OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...WITH AN
   INITIAL THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.  WITH
   TIME...LOW LEVEL WINDS/SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A SUBSEQUENT
   INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

So, heres the GRLevel3 map outlined with the days possibility, along with MESO discussion and radar.  So its clear to say where my target will be today.  I'm heading towards Stillwater.  Departed town under overcast skies, but the satellite revealed clearing skies west of I-35.  Were on the move. 

(Below) So, I stop off near I-35 now and the skies not as clear as I hoped for daytime heating to build, but I bite my lip, check over the latest Mesonet readings and sit it out waiting.

By 3:30pm, it looks as though things are starting to look up.  As I'm heading into Stillwater to gas up, I note the nice tower (below) building to my west.  Impressive on Radar, top was around 34,000 and still building.  Could this be the one? 

I pull up the latest radar image on GRL3 and this cell looked to have potential.  The chase is on as I allowed the cell to pass north of my location to get into position on the southside.  To my luck, all cell tracks leaded northeast.  Bonus, I'm chasing back towards home. 

I'm north of Stillwater now, keeping the cell off to my left shoulder as it continues to grow.  This cell screaming to do something interesting.  Reports come over the spotter network and Ham Radioes, hail the size of tennis balls faling from this one.  I find a place to pull off the side and wait for the storm to cross over me. (below) Time is 5:10pm CST.

As I'm watching the cell, I pull down the latest radar, and hers what showing.  A lot of decent cells going up, but nothing extreme.

The cell passes by, drops a few dime size hail and wind gust about 40mph, and then it was over.  I was thinking, really???   I wasn't about to let it go, top was still setting around 42,000 ft and the road network was easy to keep along size of this one as I zigzagged north and east back into Osage county.    Lots of lightning, rain and wind, but that was the extent of this chase.  Saw an interesting feature in the clouds and decided to take a snapshot in the pic below. 

So what did the daily toll come to?  One tornado reported in Norman and in California.  That was the extend.  I wasn't disappointed for the days chase, it was good to go out and see the beauty of nature.  There were bigger fish to fry the next day.  SPC is forecasting a major outbreak on April 14th.  I wonder where the roads will take me next!

April 9th, 2012 Chase Log

Ah, the red rock adventure.  Seeing that today was offering a good day to see some tornadoes in the panhandle, I departed Bartlesville, OK with a target of Enid.  Heading on 60 across the north central part of the state, a torando watch was posted just after 2 pm and I couldn't be happier:

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0478
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0154 PM CDT MON APR 09 2012
  
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES/SWRN KS/WRN OK
  
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
  
   VALID 091854Z - 092030Z
  
   SLOWLY INCREASING SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA WILL LIKELY WARRANT TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
   SO.
  
   VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING ACROSS THE ERN TX/OK PANHANDLES AND
   INTO WRN OK...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK CONTINUES EXPANDING FARTHER TO
   THE W ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE.  AS A RESULT...APPRECIABLE HEATING
   CONTINUES...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSES NOW INDICATING ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG
   MIXED-LAYER CAPE OVER THE ERN PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT WRN OK/SWRN KS
   E OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT/WEAK DRYLINE. 

By 2:30pm CST, the watch was released.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 151
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   230 PM CDT MON APR 9 2012
  
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
  
          SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
          NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
  
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL 900
   PM CDT.
  
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
  
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   MEDICINE LODGE KANSAS TO 55 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA.
   FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
  
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT
   1-2 HOURS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHWEST OK...NEAR WEAK
   SURFACE BOUNDARY.  MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS
   IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  THREAT
   SHOULD PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CONVECTIVE MODE TRANSITIONS
   INTO MORE OF A HAIL/WIND THREAT.

So it was off leaving cloudy skies behind as the open road gave to sunshine and a mixture of Cumulus clouds on the way out to the panhandle.

By 4:30 pm arriving in Enid, I pulled down the latest weather discussion and reviewed the latest satellite images.  Even in Enid, I believed that I was still too far east to intercept during the daytime hours, so I departed northward heading towards the Woodward, OK area.  The clouds were beginning to overcast the sky leaving me to wonder if anything was possible.

So it was off leaving cloudy skies behind as the open road gave to sunshine and a mixture of Cumulus clouds on the way out to the panhandle.  But things changed quickly just after dinnertime as I pulled down the latest radar image from the Storm Prediction Center.

By 7 pm I finally arrived north of Woodward where a cell was already tornado warned.  I found that I had arrvied a little took late taking on the storm from the northeast where my view was obscured by rain.  I continued driving southward as fast as I could but the rain continued to make seeing difficult.

Once the rain let up, I caught the view below looking up at the perfectly structured HP Supercell. The striations or mid level bands, were beautiful. 

Although I watched the cell intently looking for indiction of the torando, it just wasn't gonna happened as these cells were on a southeast direction.  I tried to make up time, but was slowed down considerably by quarter size hail.  To my south near Sharon, the tornado continued to churn out what I later saw as spectacular tornadoes.  I felt like charlie brown on halloween night..chasers in position was given a beautiful tornado and I ended up with rocks from the sky! 

Giving up on the storms noting the time and the long drive ahead of me, I decided to call off the chase and head back on my 4 hour drive to home.  I was given quite a nice sunset through the broken rain.

Well, total round trip was over 460 miles to chase a cell that was tornado warned.  I miscalculated my position and time of arrival that cost me seeing the tornado. It would be a mistake I would not do again if I chased this far west in the future.  (See the specutacular result 5 days later on April 14th Chase!)